Entry 11: The Politics of an Aging Population
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Right now is a very intense time in the world of CANADIAN POLITICS! While caps lock may not make it seem much more exciting, Canada is now heading into a federal election in which Steven Harper will try to win Canadians back like a girlfriend he cheated on, Tom Mulcair will try to win over a confused and sad-mad Canada like the best friend it knows it should have chosen, and Justin Trudeau, the boy from your childhood who moved away and returned as a man will try to swoop in and steal Canadian votes. A little more interesting now that it is a teen drama. One key demographic that the three main parties and the Green Party are fighting to win over, though, is the seniors. Less exciting. I was watching the news a few nights ago and one of the stories being discussed was the parties shifting focus and targeting seniors. Their incentives included tax breaks, taxable benefits, and increasing retirement security. It then showed an interview with a group of seniors who were discussing who to vote for in the upcoming election, with what the parties would be providing seniors the main topic of discussion.
I have mixed feelings about that, but for now I'll describe the demographics of Canada's situation right now. Canada's population growth has reached a plateau. Canadians are not having enough children to sustain population growth. As you might notice by looking at the graph on the right, Canada's population pyramid is looking more and more like a population diamond. The narrower top represents Canadian seniors, the wider middle represents the population at large (those who work), and the narrower base represents Canada's youth. Canada actually relies on immigration to continue population growth. While on a global scale reducing population growth is a good thing, it does not bode well for the Canadian economy. Think of it this way: as a population grows, so does the economy. More people equals more capital. Right now, around 14 million people in Canada- 54.5% of our population- are between the ages of 25 and 64 years old. This is the population at large. This population, by working and paying taxes, supports the dependency load (seniors and youth that are not working). As can be expected, though, from the nature of aging, this population at large will retire, many within the next 20 years, and join the dependency load. At this point, we can assume that, while a large portion of today's dependency load will die, with our current health care system and the improvements that are sure to come, Canada's life expectancy is increasing, meaning that the dependency load will increase greatly.
What is my point? As mentioned above, the population at large supports the dependency load by paying taxes. As the current population at large starts to retire and the current dependency load dies off at a much slower rate, with an increasingly small young Canadian population to replace the current population at large in the workforce, taxes to support the senior dependency load will increase. In addition to higher taxes, it is also estimated that housing prices will drop, due to a reduced need for homes, making it difficult for some to get a return on their property when selling. It could also mean that once the larger dependency load begins to die off again, nursing homes, retirement homes and other facilities built to support the influx of baby-boom seniors will no longer have the number of patients necessary to maintain and staff these facilities.
While these are mostly rough predictions and geography-class speculations, there are concerns for where Canada's population is going and how Canada will react to our aging population.
The graph below shows Canada's population growth trends between 1984 and 2014.
I have mixed feelings about that, but for now I'll describe the demographics of Canada's situation right now. Canada's population growth has reached a plateau. Canadians are not having enough children to sustain population growth. As you might notice by looking at the graph on the right, Canada's population pyramid is looking more and more like a population diamond. The narrower top represents Canadian seniors, the wider middle represents the population at large (those who work), and the narrower base represents Canada's youth. Canada actually relies on immigration to continue population growth. While on a global scale reducing population growth is a good thing, it does not bode well for the Canadian economy. Think of it this way: as a population grows, so does the economy. More people equals more capital. Right now, around 14 million people in Canada- 54.5% of our population- are between the ages of 25 and 64 years old. This is the population at large. This population, by working and paying taxes, supports the dependency load (seniors and youth that are not working). As can be expected, though, from the nature of aging, this population at large will retire, many within the next 20 years, and join the dependency load. At this point, we can assume that, while a large portion of today's dependency load will die, with our current health care system and the improvements that are sure to come, Canada's life expectancy is increasing, meaning that the dependency load will increase greatly.
What is my point? As mentioned above, the population at large supports the dependency load by paying taxes. As the current population at large starts to retire and the current dependency load dies off at a much slower rate, with an increasingly small young Canadian population to replace the current population at large in the workforce, taxes to support the senior dependency load will increase. In addition to higher taxes, it is also estimated that housing prices will drop, due to a reduced need for homes, making it difficult for some to get a return on their property when selling. It could also mean that once the larger dependency load begins to die off again, nursing homes, retirement homes and other facilities built to support the influx of baby-boom seniors will no longer have the number of patients necessary to maintain and staff these facilities.
While these are mostly rough predictions and geography-class speculations, there are concerns for where Canada's population is going and how Canada will react to our aging population.
The graph below shows Canada's population growth trends between 1984 and 2014.
Now, to TOK this issue, the AOKs and WOKs must be identified.
The AOKs involved in this issue are the human sciences due to the political concerns surrounding the issue and the population studies it concerns, and math.
The WOKs concerning this issue include reason, emotion, imagination, logic, and language.
Some knowledge statements that can be made surrounding this issue:
a) Canadian politicians are targeting different population groups to win voters by promising them benefits.
b) Canada's population is changing and is becoming older due to low birth and death rates.
c) Canada's economy is changing and will continue to change with its population.
Some knowledge questions that can be made surrounding the nature of this issue:
a) To what extent are the human sciences influenced by math?
b) To what extent is perspective affected by logic in the human sciences?
c) How are the human sciences influenced by logic and emotion?
d) To what extent is perspective influenced by language?
In this issue, the answer to question number one seems to be absolutely. This issue, being both geographical and political in nature is absolutely influenced by math. The study of demographics and the building of pyramid is very dependent upon math. Without mathematical formulas and methods to calculate demographics and make predictions upon those demographics, the process would be long, inefficient, and only an indicator of the present. It is also clear that the other area of the human sciences in this issue, politics, is also dependent on the math. The political parties are targeting seniors as a voting source as they represent nearly 16% of our population. These politicians rely absolutely upon math to determine towards whom they will direct their election promises and how much money they will promise each part of the population. To ignore the math would be unreasonable and likely even detrimental to Canada.
Another issue that can be related to the first question is the determination of Canadian election districts. Canadian electoral districts are determined based on population size and geographical location, and must be reviewed every ten years. 30 new districts have recently been added and can reportedly greatly influence the outcome of this election based on voting trends in those areas. Being new districts, these areas are also unrepresented in parliament at the moment. Due to the political and geographical concerns of the new ridings, it is undoubtedly a human sciences issue. In the determination of these ridings, though, the government would have had to use math to justify their reasoning in the determination of the position of the new ridings. This reason was based on the population size in the areas, the size of the new ridings, and possibly even vote history averages. In this issue, the political area of the human sciences could be greatly influenced by the mathematical logic used to create these new ridings.
Works cited:
statscanada.ca
indexmundi.com
elections.ca
cbc.ca
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/140926/dq140926b-eng.htm
The AOKs involved in this issue are the human sciences due to the political concerns surrounding the issue and the population studies it concerns, and math.
The WOKs concerning this issue include reason, emotion, imagination, logic, and language.
Some knowledge statements that can be made surrounding this issue:
a) Canadian politicians are targeting different population groups to win voters by promising them benefits.
b) Canada's population is changing and is becoming older due to low birth and death rates.
c) Canada's economy is changing and will continue to change with its population.
Some knowledge questions that can be made surrounding the nature of this issue:
a) To what extent are the human sciences influenced by math?
b) To what extent is perspective affected by logic in the human sciences?
c) How are the human sciences influenced by logic and emotion?
d) To what extent is perspective influenced by language?
In this issue, the answer to question number one seems to be absolutely. This issue, being both geographical and political in nature is absolutely influenced by math. The study of demographics and the building of pyramid is very dependent upon math. Without mathematical formulas and methods to calculate demographics and make predictions upon those demographics, the process would be long, inefficient, and only an indicator of the present. It is also clear that the other area of the human sciences in this issue, politics, is also dependent on the math. The political parties are targeting seniors as a voting source as they represent nearly 16% of our population. These politicians rely absolutely upon math to determine towards whom they will direct their election promises and how much money they will promise each part of the population. To ignore the math would be unreasonable and likely even detrimental to Canada.
Another issue that can be related to the first question is the determination of Canadian election districts. Canadian electoral districts are determined based on population size and geographical location, and must be reviewed every ten years. 30 new districts have recently been added and can reportedly greatly influence the outcome of this election based on voting trends in those areas. Being new districts, these areas are also unrepresented in parliament at the moment. Due to the political and geographical concerns of the new ridings, it is undoubtedly a human sciences issue. In the determination of these ridings, though, the government would have had to use math to justify their reasoning in the determination of the position of the new ridings. This reason was based on the population size in the areas, the size of the new ridings, and possibly even vote history averages. In this issue, the political area of the human sciences could be greatly influenced by the mathematical logic used to create these new ridings.
Works cited:
statscanada.ca
indexmundi.com
elections.ca
cbc.ca
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/140926/dq140926b-eng.htm